Ripple’s XRP Runs Out of Chances to Keep Up With Bitcoin (BTC): A Detailed Overview of Economic & Market Effects

Introduction

XRP’s ambitious bid to dethrone Bitcoin in the high-stakes world of virtual currencies, where billion-dollar fortunes can be made and lost on the turn of a byte, is running up against reality. With Bitcoin reaching over $111,000 and assuming its role as digital gold, XRP is beginning to lose in the XRP/BTC pair in what analysts say could signal a classic double top, a bearish sign with bad omens for Ripple’s own token. This is more relevant today than ever for investors, speculators, and the general crypto community, and it underscores Bitcoin’s dominance in a market estimated to surpass $5 trillion in valuation by the year’s end.

 

With XRP at around USD 2.83 on TradingView, the implications are bigger than the charts — the case for portfolio diversification, changes in regulations, and what we can expect the future of cross-border payments to look like. With the likes of XRP running out of steam against BTC, clever investors will need to adapt to survive and thrive in these tumultuous trading times.

Historical Context

XRP vs. Bitcoin: A history of the rivalry The competition between XRP and Bitcoin goes back to the very beginning of cryptocurrency itself, in fact, before we even had a functioning cryptocurrency. 2009 saw Bitcoin introduced to the world as a decentralized store of value, and in 2012, XRP, as we know it, was also released, as part of Ripple’s vision for swift, hassle-free transactions across the planet. XRP was specifically created to enable high-speed low-fee transactions, and thus is a utility token, rather than a direct rival to BTC's scarcity-based approach. A few key landmarks defined this relationship: XRP surged more than 36,000% during 2017’s bull run, when it reached an all-time high of $3.84 and, briefly, surpassed Bitcoin in terms of gains and possession of market share due to deals with banks like Santander and American Express. But in the 2018 bust, XRP plunged 90%, in this case worse than other coins, under a cloud of regulatory scrutiny.

The turning point was December 2020 when it was sued by the US financial regulator the SEC, which alleged XRP was an unregistered security which sent its $ price tumbling below $0.20 and further away from Bitcoin. A half win is that in July 2023 a judge decided that XRP is not a security on the secondary markets sending XRP higher by 70%, by the excited moon kids’ reaction even above its 200-week moving average sparking a dream to close the BTC gap.  The XRP/BTC pair, in historical terms, has proven to be quite volatile, peaking to 0.00005 BTC in early 2018 and falling to 0.000005 BTC during the 2022 crypto winter.  Twice earlier in 2025, a rally boosted the pair toward 0.00003200 BTC as breakouts over the level attempted, but rejection, this time, drew the double top, resembling the above trend exhaustion patterns turned top. These events underscore the reliance of XRP on regulatory clarity and adoption, in stark contrast to the institutional embrace of Bitcoin through an ETF structure, leading to BTC’s market cap of more than $2.2 trillion.

Current Data of Ripple (XRP)

Despite XRP’s recent recovery off $2.49 (which is the lowest close in over a month), the token has failed to climb above $2.88 seen earlier this week. Bitcoin itself has held well above the $111,000 resistance, which is up over 150% year-to-date, which demonstrates the relative strength of the token. The XRP/BTC pairing is now being supported by the key 0.00002200 BTC area after pulling back from the 0.00003200 BTC resistance – which was tested on two occasions this year. Market data paints a rather grim picture: Ripple’s XRP weekly volume is 15% lower, sitting at $3.2 billion, while BTC dominance has grown to 58%, putting strain on altcoins like XRP.

For the charts, the weekly double top is clear whilst the moving averages are flat — the 200-week MA at 24 satoshi operates as a monthly ceiling. Shorter 4-hour time frames indicate XRP/BTC stuck between 0.00002600 BTC resistance and the 200-day MA, where selling pressure has taken control as every bounce fades. On-chain adoption metrics are mixed: RippleNet now processes more than 1 million transactions a day (up 20% year on year) while XRP's daily active addresses still pale in comparison to BTC's at 45,000 vs. 1 million. The user growth for XRP wallets flatlines at 5.5 million whilst BTC experiences parabolic ETF-related inflows of $20 billion in 2025 alone. This is indicative of XRP maintaining a stable price in USD, behind which lurks the underbelly of the beast in its BTC ratio, which has seen XRP-USD down 10% month-to-date.

Implications of XRP/BTC

The XRP/BTC double top suggests a probability of trend reversal, calling for potentially major financial and market consequences. For investors, the bearish case should signal a tapped off topside, with a move below 0.00002200 BTC likely targeting 0.00002000 BTC – another 20% down that could see XRP's USD valuation at $2.20 should BTC keep its consolidation pattern. This increases portfolio risk for XRP holders, who risk missing out on the upside of BTC’s continued growth due to halvings and institutional exposure. By diversifying into BTC does the hit get reduced but having too much confidence would also expose traders to the correlation risk because XRP has a 0.91 correlation with BTC in the last three months that in turn amplifies losses.

Regulators might interpret this as a testament to Bitcoin's 'safe haven' narrative, expediting ETFs for BTC and drilling into XRP's utility assertions as Ripple goes through the SEC appeals. Companies that use Ripple for remittances — and processing $10 billion annually — are in an uncertain position because, with XRP price’s volatility, transaction fees could potentially become too high, driving adoption around stable coins or BTC’s Lightning Network solutions. More generally speaking for the broader market, extended weakness for XRP only galvanizes the BTC is the alpha asset story, a bearish force for altcoin price action that drives the more divided crypto-ecosystem, where utility tokens such as XRP, fail at generating real world usage.

Conclusion

In the future, XRP’s path against Bitcoin is delicate, but based on data and experts’ perspectives, some are expecting a variety of narratives to play out. Should the double top confirm by breaking down through support, the XRP/BTC pair is expected to fall to 0.00002000 BTC by Q4 2025, or XRP at $2.20-2.50 USD absent a BTC correction. That would mean a clear-cut breakout of 0.00003200 BTC might nullify the structure and lead in the direction of 0.00004000 BTC (and $3.50 XRP). WalletInvestor gave a guarded estimate of $0.90-$2.50 for XRP by end of year based on regulatory obstacles, while Pumpius gave $50 XRP in December 2025 if there is an approval of the ETFs in October, based on numerical values on the market structure and inflows.  

 

This article is contributed by an external writer: Caleb Obed. 

 
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