Macro investor Raoul Pal has stated that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market rhythm has shifted into a five-year cycle, projecting the next peak to occur around the second quarter of 2026. His analysis connects this shift to a structural change in global debt maturity, extending the usual business cycle by roughly a year.
Macro investor Raoul Pal has stated that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market rhythm has shifted into a five-year cycle, projecting the next peak to occur around the second quarter of 2026. His analysis connects this shift to a structural change in global debt maturity, extending the usual business cycle by roughly a year.
Speaking on Real Vision, Pal explained that the maturity of government debt was lengthened from four to five years between 2021 and 2022. He said this change effectively extended the global business cycle, which Bitcoin’s price movements have historically followed. According to him, the current trend mirrors a 5.4-year sine curve that aligns with the average weighted maturity of global debt.
Pal highlighted that the present cycle’s delay stems from high interest rates, which have slowed liquidity growth. He noted that while Wall Street benefited from asset inflation, Main Street faced tighter financial conditions. He emphasized that lowering rates remains necessary to manage rising debt costs and restore balance between financial and real sectors.
The macro analyst also pointed out that global policymakers face a complex challenge, reducing rates to refinance growing debt without destabilizing currencies or inflation expectations. This environment, he said, has produced an extended business cycle that diverges from previous four-year patterns.
Beyond interest rates, Pal identified liquidity as the key force behind asset valuations. He said liquidity accounts for roughly 96% of tech stock movements and about 90% of Bitcoin’s. The strong correlation suggests that capital flow, rather than earnings or geopolitical shifts, plays the largest role in determining market direction.
He added that as central banks expand liquidity at about 8% annually to manage debt and hedge inflation, assets that fail to yield above 11% risk real-term losses. Moreover, crypto assets, which outperform under such macro conditions, could therefore remain favored during the ongoing liquidity expansion.
However, Pal concluded that the cycle’s structure shows Bitcoin’s and Ethereum’s growth momentum may continue well into 2026, with liquidity likely peaking before midyear.
