Several warning signs are emerging for Solana (SOL), as a combination of on-chain whale behavior, regulatory headwinds, and a bearish technical setup create a cautious short-term outlook for the asset. The developments come after SOL has already experienced a notable price pullback.
Several warning signs are emerging for Solana (SOL), as a combination of on-chain whale behavior, regulatory headwinds, and a bearish technical setup create a cautious short-term outlook for the asset. The developments come after SOL has already experienced a notable price pullback.
This follows a period of significant optimism for Solana, but new data points suggest the trend may be shifting.
A recent post by Onchain Lens revealed a notable whale transaction: 77,160 SOL (worth approximately $11.42 million) was swapped for 63,758.63 JitoSOL, a liquid staking derivative.
While this doesn’t represent a market exit, it does suggest a shift toward yield-bearing positions without losing network exposure—typically a move seen during periods of anticipated sideways or bearish price action. Whales preparing for passive income over price appreciation could indicate fading short-term bullish conviction.
Adding to market anxiety, the US SEC has on Franklin Templeton’s spot Solana ETF until November 2025. This delay, while procedural, reflects the broader hesitancy of US regulators to greenlight spot crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin.
Although VanEck’s VSOL ETF has surfaced on the DTCC list, and Canada approved a SOL ETF back in May, the lack of consistent global regulatory clarity has discouraged institutional momentum.
The SEC emphasized that the initiation of proceedings does not imply a bias but opens the floor for public comments. However, the message is clear: institutional access to SOL through traditional markets remains in limbo, reinforcing short-term hesitancy.
As per the chart below, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently near 43.52, dipping below the neutral 50 mark. Notably, momentum has shifted to the downside, with lower highs on RSI confirming weakening buying strength.
Further, the MACD line (-2.88) is firmly below the signal line (-0.63), maintaining a bearish crossover. Negative histogram bars support the presence of downward momentum, though the slope is starting to flatten slightly.
It is also important to note that SOL has retraced below the 0.786 level ($147.86) and is hovering slightly above the 1.0 Fib at $142.13. A further drop could test the 1.618 extension at $125.52, which aligns with a likely liquidity pocket.
A deeper move could find support around the 2.618 extension at $98.64, though that would likely require a broader market correction or further regulatory setbacks.
