The long-awaited “altseason” has not yet officially started, with a key market indicator showing Bitcoin is still firmly in control. However, technical analysts are now pointing to a compelling chart pattern that looks nearly identical to the setup that preceded the explosive 2021 altcoin rally.
The long-awaited “altseason” has not yet officially started, with a key market indicator showing Bitcoin is still firmly in control. However, technical analysts are now pointing to a compelling chart pattern that looks nearly identical to the setup that preceded the explosive 2021 altcoin rally.
The Altcoin Season Index stood at 32 as of 00:30 UTC on July 15, a figure that confirms the market remains in “Bitcoin Season.” This index, tracked by CoinMarketCap, measures whether 75% of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. A score of 75 or above is needed to declare the start of an “Altcoin Season.”
The current reading of 32 indicates that fewer than one-third of leading altcoins are currently beating Bitcoin. While the index has risen from a yearly low of 12 back in April, the momentum has not yet been strong enough to signal a major market shift.
The index has risen in recent weeks, climbing from a late June low of 25 to 32 by mid-July. This rise displays a small recovery in altcoin activity, but not enough to signal a major market shift. Altcoins continue to trail behind Bitcoin, with no clear breakout visible at this stage.
Historical data shows that the index reached a yearly high of 87 on December 4, 2024, marking an intense altcoin phase. The lowest point came on April 26, 2025, when the index dropped to 12, showing Bitcoin dominance.
Despite the low index reading, a technical pattern on the altcoin market chart is drawing significant attention. Analyst Merlijn The Trader highlighted a “double fakeout” pattern that was observed both in 2021 and again in 2025.
In both instances, the market first broke below a key support level before sharply reversing to the upside. In 2021, this exact pattern preceded a massive breakout that pushed the altcoin market cap (excluding the top 10 coins) to over $260 billion.
Currently, a similar setup is forming again. The altcoin market cap, which excludes the top assets, now stands near $232 billion. After two failed breakdowns below support, the chart is now showing a rising green candlestick, which suggests renewed bullish momentum.
Further commentary from analyst Syntax notes that the Altcoin Index, despite being low overall, has been since February.
According to his analysis, specific high-growth sectors are already attracting strong liquidity in anticipation of a broader rally. These include projects focused on DeFi, AI, Real World Assets (RWAs), and Yield-Bearing Strategies.
