Polymarket Odds Slip as Pump.fun ICO Faces Doubts Over First-Hour Sellout

The hype around Pump.fun’s upcoming ICO may not be translating into full market confidence, as the decentralized prediction market Polymarket shows the probability of the ICO selling out within its first hour has slipped from 41% to 38% just days ahead of the July 12 launch.

This dip suggests growing skepticism about the project’s ability to sustain momentum, despite its enormous $1.3 billion fundraising goal.

Pump.fun, the Solana-based meme coin generator, is aiming to sell 330 billion PUMP tokens at $0.004 apiece. That’s 33% of its total one trillion token supply, which is split between a fully-subscribed 18% private sale and the upcoming 15% public sale.

The company says the funds will be used to build a social ecosystem that directly challenges Meta, TikTok, and Twitch by offering monetary rewards for user attention.

On the derivatives platform Hyperliquid, the PUMP-USD perpetual contract began trading on July 9 and quickly hit $30 million in volume. The token’s mark price on that platform reached $0.0056, which is nearly 40% above the official ICO price.

Users from the U.S., UK, and European Union are blocked from the sale, and all participants must complete KYC either through Pump.fun or on approved exchanges like Bybit, Kraken, MEXC, and KuCoin.

The PUMP ICO will remain open until July 15 at 14:00 UTC or until all tokens are sold. Whether the crowd shows up fast enough to will be a closely-watched moment in meme coin history.

The funds raised from the ICO will be used to fuel livestreaming innovations, expand the core team, and support community incentives. Additionally, the team is exploring future utility for the PUMP token, including fee rebates and token buybacks, to create long-term value for holders.

According to , Pump.fun will also double down on improving the quality, diversity, and sustainability of its meme coin launches while amplifying its social layer, especially live-streaming, to build what he calls a “viral, participatory Web3 media empire.”