Gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all posting massive year-to-date gains in what looks like a clear shift away from paper currency and toward hard assets. This trend is heating up as the U.S. dollar is under pressure ahead of a critical later today that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
According to CryptoQuant recent market data, gold is up 32.47% this year, with silver close behind at 31.77%. Bitcoin, despite its recent volatility, has climbed 23.34%.
In sharp contrast, the U.S. dollar has lost 9.53% of its value over the same period.
On Monday, gold traded at per ounce, edging up by $2.60. Prices fluctuated between $3,344 and $3,356 during early trading. Silver stood at $37.75 per ounce, adding $0.06 and showing mild intraday volatility. Bitcoin, priced at , slipped 2.34% over 24 hours a weekly gain of 3.70%.
But which is better?
The U.S. dollar index recently ticked higher to , reflecting a modest 0.07% increase. However, traders are watching closely for July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. A 0.3% monthly rise in core CPI could give the Fed room to cut rates, especially with recent signs of a weakening labor market.
According to , markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut next month. Projections suggest two quarter-point cuts by year-end, with a possible third if conditions warrant.
The Fed’s decision-making could also be influenced by ongoing trade policies, including recent developments in U.S.-China negotiations and semiconductor export agreements.
Cooling inflation would strengthen expectations for a September rate cut. However, any signs of tariff-driven price increases could delay that move.
President Trump recently extended a pause on higher tariffs for Chinese imports, aiming to create space for trade discussions. Meanwhile, technology companies like Nvidia and AMD have agreed to allocate part of their Chinese sales revenue to the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses.
The TradFi view.
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