Bitcoin Sinks 15% as S&P 500 Gains 7%, Breaking 4-Year Correlation

Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical market inflection point. A sharp divergence has emerged between bearish technical analysts and bullish on-chain data, leaving traders to question if Bitcoin is in a “macro downtrend” or a “momentum build-up.”

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez suggests Bitcoin may have slipped into a macro downtrend. He noted that comparing the cryptocurrency’s price movement with the 2015–2018 or 2018–2022 cycles suggests the current cycle established its top on October 26.

This historical-cycle analysis from Martinez highlights Bitcoin’s tendency to embark on a prolonged bear trend after such a peak.

Martinez’s latest post on X reveals Bitcoin’s price performance for the current cycle, side-by-side with the performance of previous cycles. However, it is worth noting that the Bitcoin ecosystem has experienced a notable shift since 2022, particularly in the area of underlying factors that affect the market trend.

Although Martinez’s post highlights Bitcoin’s tendency to embark on a bear trend, Santiment’s data suggests otherwise. The latest post from the cryptocurrency analysis platform reveals a correlation break between crypto and equities over the past three months after moving in tandem for the past four years.

According to Santiment’s , Gold has gained 21% in the past three months, while the S&P 500 has gained 7% over the same period. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, the pioneer cryptocurrency, saw a 15% price decline. Santiment considers the data a reflection of Bitcoin’s undervalued nature and the cryptocurrency’s potential.

In the meantime, Martinez the growing stability in the Bitcoin market, citing Binance’s total reserve holding that was $120 billion, with a USDT reserve that reached a new all-time high of $42.8 billion. Meanwhile, the BTC holdings on the exchange stood at 548,000 Bitcoins.

Many analysts applauded Binance’s reserve holdings, particularly in Bitcoin and USDT, citing it as a reflection of the crypto exchange’s ability to withstand the typical volatility often experienced in the cryptocurrency market. They consider it a solid backbone that sustains the cryptocurrency trading platform across the various seasons.

According to TradingView’s data, Bitcoin traded for $103,496 at the time of writing after experiencing a 4.67% pullback in the past 24 hours.