Crypto Cycle Topped in 2025 or Still Bullish? ETF and Macro Viewpoints

The debate in Q4 2025 is whether the crypto bull cycle has already topped or still has room to run. Some argue that the four-year cycle timing points to exhaustion, while others point to steady ETF inflows, rising stablecoin liquidity, and supportive macro conditions as evidence the rally isn’t done.

This split has left , a wall of worry that now shapes how capital is being deployed. What’s clear is that conviction is high on both sides, with bulls betting on structural inflows and bears warning that the easy gains are behind us.

Historically, Q4 has been the strongest quarter for crypto, especially in the last leg of a four-year cycle. However, the old rule that Bitcoin’s price surges every four years after its halving might not hold as much weight anymore.

Many now argue that the market is being shaped more by institutional flows, new ETFs, and the overall global economic climate than by the simple supply schedule. Plus, the presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs and steady inflows gives crypto a structural demand base not present in prior cycles, not to mention that the total stablecoin supply is increasing.

As argued, crypto now trades macro. The business cycle has not topped, rate-cut expectations can still drive flows, and with a lag.

Over the past 90 days, stablecoin supply has expanded by more than $45 billion, led by USDT (+$19.6B), USDC (+$12.3B), and USDe (+$9.0B), according to.

This surge in fresh stablecoin liquidity signals fiat inflows are still entering the market rather than contracting, one of the clearest data points giving bulls confidence that the rally is not done.

On the other hand, there are those who point out a bear case where the bull cycle is topped. The market has gone up very fast, and some believe is simply running out of steam.

A good number of people believe that the market has exhausted its pool of new buyers, with the most accessible gains having already been realized.

Then, important institutional buyers, such as corporate Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), may be approaching allocation limits. Additionally, new regulations could make them more cautious.

It has also been suggested that the past crypto peaks were fueled by a frenzy of everyday investors. At the moment, the average person seems more interested in the stock market than crypto.

What’s more, Strategy (MSTR), a company famous for buying Bitcoin, for the first time this cycle, which was seen by many as a bad omen for the entire crypto market.

In the end, the split opinion in the market outlook is more than a theoretical debate, since it directly shapes how traders manage their money. Both sides have good points, but nobody actually knows anything for certain, and we have yet to see which side was correct.