After a recent surge that saw Bitcoin push to a new all-time high above $122,000, the price has pulled back to around $118,848. But despite the cooldown, a consensus is forming among top on-chain analysts that the recent peak was likely not the final cycle top for Bitcoin.
After a recent surge that saw Bitcoin push to a new all-time high above $122,000, the price has pulled back to around $118,848. But despite the cooldown, a consensus is forming among top on-chain analysts that the recent peak was likely not the final cycle top for Bitcoin.
Key indicators that have accurately signaled major market tops in the past have not yet been triggered, according to new reports from analytics firms CryptoQuant, Swissblock, and Glassnode. Their data suggests that the broader bull market structure remains intact and the rally has more room to run.
CryptoQuant contributor highlighted a critical chart showing the “Bitcoin Peak Signal,” a tool that has accurately called major cycle tops since 2013.
The chart, which overlays Bitcoin’s price history with peak signal indicators, shows that the current cycle has not yet triggered caution. Adler on X wrote :
Supporting this view, on-chain analyst pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent price breakout differs from overheated mini-peaks seen earlier in March and December 2024.
“Despite the price rising even higher, the fact that overheating has significantly decreased… suggests that Bitcoin could continue to break all-time highs and rise significantly in the second half of 2025,” Dan said. The underlying message: this isn’t just a blow-off top, it may be a sustainable uptrend.
Adding to the optimism, Swissblock’s latest market review argued that the current price action doesn’t resemble previous tops. Drawing from , they noted that past BTC expansions typically lasted 15 to 30 days, and we’re only on day 12 of the current rally.
Meanwhile, capital is rotating into ETH, another hallmark of mid-cycle strength rather than exhaustion.
Behavioral signals and liquidity metrics haven’t reached extremes, and indicators like the VWAP Liquidity and Speculation Index show no signs of euphoric risk-taking yet. Short-term holder unrealized profit is also well below historic peak levels.
Glassnode’s data provides a more cautionary, but not bearish, tone. Their analysis suggests Bitcoin is entering an overheated phase. Metrics such as the 7-day EMA of spent volume in profit by short-term holders surged to 82%, and realized profit-to-loss ratios are at 39.8x, both well above historical red zones.
Still, Swissblock noted that in past cycles, similar spikes occurred multiple times before an actual cycle top was reached.
Additionally, the recent breakout past $120k came after heavy accumulation between $93k–$109k, an area now likely to act as support during any pullback. “Cycle tops follow with a lag,” Glassnode concluded, “leaving room for further upside… [but] the market becomes increasingly sensitive to external shocks.”
As per , BTC trades at $118,187.74, up 8% in the past seven days and almost 1% in the past 24 hours. The all-time high remains around the $123K price level.
