The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes on December 9–10 for its final policy meeting of 2025, with Tuesday reserved for internal deliberations and Wednesday scheduled for the public directive.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes on December 9–10 for its final policy meeting of 2025, with Tuesday reserved for internal deliberations and Wednesday scheduled for the public directive.
to the Federal schedule, the policy statement will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Ahead of the meeting, futures markets assign an 87% probability that the Fed will slash the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, lowering it to 3.50–3.75%. The current range sits at 3.75–4.00% following the October pivot. While the consensus expects a reduction, some hawks on the committee remain cautious due to mixed inflation signals and resilient GDP growth.
Investors will closely watch the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), known as the “dot plot,” which may indicate further easing in 2026. The meeting is also expected to confirm the end of quantitative tightening, which will conclude the $95-billion-per-month reduction in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. This shift could increase market liquidity and support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Harish Vatnani of ZebPay noted that Bitcoin often faces downward pressure before Fed announcements. If this pattern comes true. Bitcoin may face intraday swings as traders anticipate policy cues.
Piyush Walke, derivatives research analyst at Delta Exchange, also warned that traders should exercise caution this week, as multiple major economic data releases are expected to keep volatility elevated.
Notably, options data suggest 20–30% potential volatility during the announcement, highlighting the sensitivity of crypto assets to Powell’s statements.
Bitcoin has rebounded from recent lows, rising nearly to $94,150 before stabilizing at $91,972, up 2.6% over 24 hours. Analysts identify $93,000 as key resistance, with $100,000 serving as a major psychological barrier.
A hawkish Fed could push Bitcoin back toward the $87,000–$90,000 range, while a rate cut may support a move above $95,000.
Ethereum has mirrored Bitcoin’s strength, trading above $3,160 and recently changing hands at $3,133 on $25.3 billion in volume. Resistance remains at $3,250, a level that has repeatedly capped upside attempts. Traders are watching for breakout confirmations ahead of the Fed decision.
XRP reclaimed the $2.10 level after a November selloff pushed it near $1.50. The token has maintained support above its 20-month Simple Moving Average, attracting institutional buyers.
Short-term resistance lies near $2.50, while a sustained move above $3 could signal a return to a bullish phase. Spot XRP ETFs have logged 15 consecutive days of net inflows, totaling over $660 million since mid-November.
Other altcoins, including Solana and Cardano, also staged recoveries, reflecting improved market sentiment and liquidity. Analysts caution that price action will depend heavily on the Fed’s decision and upcoming macroeconomic data releases.
