Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to find footing, failing to rally with equities and gold. This bearish divergence is a direct result of the end of the historic 43-day U.S. government shutdown. President Donald Trump has signed the bipartisan 60-40 bill to reopen the government. This “good news,” however, has been met with caution, as Bitcoin struggles to hold .
Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to find footing, failing to rally with equities and gold. This bearish divergence is a direct result of the end of the historic 43-day U.S. government shutdown. President Donald Trump has signed the bipartisan 60-40 bill to reopen the government. This “good news,” however, has been met with caution, as Bitcoin struggles to hold .
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With the government reopening, the September Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data is now imminent. This has caused Kalshi traders to lower their odds of a Fed initiating a rate cut next month. The market now fears this hot, delayed data will give the Fed justification to remain hawkish.
This fear of a “higher-for-longer” Fed has put immediate downward pressure on Bitcoin (BTC). The asset, which is highly sensitive to liquidity conditions, has suffered from low capital inflows, and this macro-shift is exacerbating the weakness.
This has triggered a clear capital rotation. The 4-year correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ 100 Index has recently broken. The S&P 500 has rallied on the reopening news, while BTC continues to signal weakness.
This divergence is most stark when compared to Gold. In the past four days, Gold price has rebounded from $3,979 to $4,212. Bitcoin, in contrast, has dropped from its $106,000 high to $103,500.
This bearish sentiment has heavily impacted the wider altcoin market. The CoinMarketCap Fear and Greed Index is hovering at 25/100, signaling “Extreme Fear.”
With the primary macro-catalyst (a Fed pivot) now in doubt, the crypto market’s hopes are shifting to structural catalysts. The reopening of the government means the Clarity Act is now well-positioned to be passed before the end of this year.
This regulatory clarity, in turn, is expected to accelerate the approval of 155 pending spot altcoin ETFs. The SEC is now expected to resume processing these filings, which could trigger a new, institution-led influx of capital.
