Pump.fun Airdrop? Don’t Count on June—July Looks More Likely: Here’s Why

Speculation over a potential airdrop by Pump.fun is heating up in online prediction markets. The popular blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket is market sentiment around when Pump.fun might launch an airdrop. As of today, June 21, two major dates have attracted the most attention: June 30 and July 31.

According to the latest odds, a June 30 airdrop is viewed as highly unlikely. Traders have placed over $29,000 in volume on this outcome, with shares for “Yes” trading at just 1.7 cents, reflecting only a 1% probability.

In contrast, the market gives a July 31 airdrop a 30% chance, with “Yes” shares trading at 34 cents. Volume for this date is slightly higher at $29,562, signaling strong market interest in a later launch.

Essentially, traders on Polymarket see only a 1% chance of a June airdrop but assign a 30% likelihood that it will occur by July 31.

The increased trading activity comes as speculation grows around the release of a native token by Pump.fun. Unconfirmed reports suggest the token may be called UMP, and pre-market listings have been spotted on platforms like Aevo, hinting at early price discovery.

Without an official announcement, social media activity has become a major driver of sentiment. Multiple influencers and community members have posted clues suggesting the airdrop could be closer than initially expected.

Despite the rising anticipation, Pump.fun has not officially announced an airdrop. The project’s website and social channels remain silent on the issue.

Meanwhile, Coin Edition earlier reported that the platform reportedly plans a $1 billion token sale at a $4 billion valuation, with speculation about a 10% airdrop for early users and an upcoming PUMP token.

Notably, Pump.fun allows anyone to launch tokens on Solana instantly and has quickly become a leading platform in the meme coin space. According to Dune Analytics, 516 wallets have turned users into millionaires.

However, only 28.3% of over 4.2 million wallets have profited. More than 58% lost over $1,000, and 68 wallets lost over $1 million, underscoring the platform’s high-risk environment.

Despite the risks, activity remains high. Daily wallet creation rose from 34,000 in January to nearly 150,000 by June, with tokens like PNUT and MOODENG experiencing rapid rises and sharp crashes.

Adding to the challenges surrounding the platform, Pump.fun is facing a lawsuit from Burwick Law. The Law accuses the platform of running a “pump and dump” scheme and facilitating unregistered securities trading.