Why Bitcoin’s Scarcity Recalibration Could Trigger a $2 Million Surge

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to mature as an asset class, investors are no longer just watching its price; they’re now paying close attention to who’s holding Bitcoin and for how long.

recent analysis highlights how HODL Waves, a visual tool showing Bitcoin’s holding patterns, offer a unique view into the conviction of long-term investors. What this gives us is a deeper understanding of current market sentiment and strong clues about where Bitcoin might be headed next.

This shift in focus comes as growing institutional adoption and increasing supply constraints for Bitcoin suggest it might be entering an era that could redefine its role in global finance. It’s not just about price appreciation anymore; it’s about a potentially massive realignment in how people view and use digital assets.

HODL Waves break down Bitcoin’s supply by how long each coin has stayed put in the same digital wallet. These holding periods, or “waves,” range from just a few hours all the way up to more than ten years. Notably, the proportion of Bitcoin held for over a decade is steadily climbing.

This signals more than just belief; it suggests a refusal to sell, even during volatile swings. So, while many traders chase quick profits, a growing group is clearly choosing to hold on for the long haul.

Besides, this behavior aligns with recent developments such as ETF approvals and stronger institutional confidence. These milestones are encouraging a shift in ownership from short-term speculators to long-term believers.

It’s important to remember, though, that HODL Waves are not short-term trading tools. Instead, they paint a picture of the emotional and strategic commitment of Bitcoin holders across different market cycles.

With over 99% of to be mined by 2035, scarcity becomes more than a theory it becomes fact. As a result, the urgency to accumulate Bitcoin is intensifying among those who understand its supply dynamics.

Investors like Michael Saylor have emphasized this window as a digital gold rush. However, even long-term investors must prepare for high volatility. Even if Bitcoin hits $200,000, sharp corrections of 50% to 60% would still be possible.

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In line with this, analysts identify critical price milestones, including a $500,000 tipping point and a $2 million long-term valuation zone. These projections rest on both supply limitations and shifting investor behavior.

The analysis also suggests that altcoin bull markets can actually into Bitcoin accumulation.

Additionally, legacy holders from 2013 and earlier continue maturing into the 10-year wave, reinforcing the long-term conviction narrative.