Bitcoin Gains Momentum as December Rate-Cut Odds Jump to 87%

Bitcoin is regaining strong upward momentum as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December intensify across financial markets. Traders now assign nearly an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, signaling a major shift in macro sentiment.

This renewed confidence follows weeks of mixed data, yet market participants now believe the Fed will finally ease policy. Besides, liquidity expectations are improving, which is strengthening support around the $90,000 region.

Market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket now show rate-cut expectations above 80%. CME’s FedWatch tool also places the probability near 87%. The ongoing scenario reveals a limited room for a policy hold in December. Larger cuts remain unlikely, with minimal positioning around a 50-basis-point move.

Lower rates typically weaken the dollar and increase liquidity. Hence, Bitcoin often benefits first when markets anticipate easier policy. The current structure reflects this trend, as BTC recently stabilized near key support.

Moreover, analysts now expect a retest of the $100,000 zone if the Fed confirms a December cut. After the recent volatility, some traders view it as an opportunity for a powerful upward price movement.

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Market commentators continue to watch the macro shift closely. Dr. Whale expects Bitcoin to attempt a push toward new records if liquidity rises. He believes stronger inflows could fuel a move between $130,000 and $150,000 within months.

His outlook reflects growing confidence that demand will improve as borrowing costs fall. Additionally, he notes that investor behavior often changes quickly when rate expectations shift.

However, other analysts show more caution. They warn that BTC must clear resistance levels before any aggressive rally. Significantly, liquidity conditions still depend on the December decision. Any delay could slow the market’s momentum and trigger consolidation.

Tom Lee offered a more tempered forecast this month. He no longer highlights his earlier $250,000 target for 2025. Instead, he BTC to reclaim the October peak near $126,200.

He still believes Bitcoin can finish the year above $100,000, though he notes that macro conditions must remain supportive. Moreover, he argues that stronger institutional activity could push demand higher during the next cycle.

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