Bitcoin’s Path to $130K After BTC Breaks $118K Resistance; Puts “Altcoin Season” on Hold

Bitcoin has made a powerful move higher, breaking out above the key $118,534 resistance zone and now approaching its previous all-time high. The move was backed by a surge in trading volume, signaling strong market participation in the rally.

Prior to this, Bitcoin traded within a narrow range, repeatedly testing the $114,670 level. The price eventually broke through that resistance, leading to a sudden advance toward $123,426, a key decision point for a new record test. The rally was fueled by buyers absorbing a wave of sell-side orders below the breakout point, shifting momentum firmly upwards.

According to analyst Michaël van de Poppe, holding above the $118,534 level is now key for maintaining this bullish market structure. The chart also identifies a “gray retracement area” below this point that could serve as a retest level if the price pulls back.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pushed into overbought territory, signaling strong upward momentum but also indicating that short-term pullbacks are possible. Analysts note that any retest of the gray zone could act as a bullish confirmation before the price resumes its upward climb. If the current trend holds, the $129,000 to $130,000 range is the next key upside target.

This surge in Bitcoin’s price has had an immediate, negative impact on the altcoin market. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index (ASI) has dropped to 36 out of 100. A reading below 25 typically signals a “Bitcoin Season,” so the current trend is clearly in Bitcoin’s favor.

How quickly things change.

The current index reading of 36 is down from 43 last week, though it is still above last month’s low of 28. Over the past 90 days, the index surged above 90 in mid-July during a brief altcoin rally before retreating to its current levels. This shows that the market is still struggling to enter a full-blown altcoin season.

What does history say?