Cardano Price Prediction: Downtrend Dominates as Bulls Struggle To Hold Above $0.4

Cardano price today trades near $0.4085, stabilizing after last week’s flush into the $0.38–$0.39 region. The short term bounce shows early attempts at recovery, but the broader structure remains firmly bearish as ADA continues to trade inside a steep descending channel while every rally stalls beneath the declining EMA cluster.

ADA’s daily chart highlights a clear and persistent downtrend. Price remains locked inside a declining channel that has guided every leg lower since October. Each attempt to rally has failed near the upper boundary, and the latest bounce is showing the same hesitation as ADA stalls under the 20 day EMA.

The 20 day EMA near $0.4890 is the first major barrier. Price continues to roll over each time it approaches this dynamic level, showing sellers defending aggressively. Above it, the 50 day EMA near $0.5839 and the 100 day EMA around $0.6590 reinforce the ceiling and align with the broader downtrend. ADA has not reclaimed a single major EMA since late September, and the pattern of lower highs remains intact.

The Supertrend indicator also stays red near $0.5200, confirming that higher timeframe pressure has not shifted. While the rebound from $0.38 shows demand at lower levels, the price action still reflects a market respecting downward momentum.

Unless ADA breaks decisively above $0.4890, the upper boundary of the downtrend channel remains the dominant feature controlling price.

ADA derivatives activity shows increasing participation, but positioning remains conservative. Volume has climbed 36.49 percent to $1.12 billion, signaling renewed trader interest as ADA rebounds from local lows.

Open interest has risen 0.95 percent to $714.69 million, a modest increase that reflects cautious accumulation rather than aggressive leverage. The options market remains quiet, with a 92.94 percent decline in options volume and a small drop in options open interest, confirming low appetite for directional bets.

Long-short ratios show mild bullish bias. Binance’s account-weighted long-short ratio stands at 2.4188, while OKX sits near 2.67. This indicates that traders are leaning long as ADA attempts to stabilize, but this buildup of positioning could become vulnerable if the trendline rejects price again.

Liquidations remain light. Only $52.29K was liquidated in the past four hours, and daily totals for longs and shorts remain balanced, suggesting controlled positioning rather than capitulation.

The derivatives landscape shows interest returning, but not enough conviction yet to challenge the broader trend.

On the 30 minute chart, ADA is forming a narrow ascending channel, attempting to carve out a recovery structure after the steep decline earlier in the week. Price is oscillating between $0.4125 and $0.4166, where VWAP aligns with short-term resistance.

Parabolic SAR prints above price on most recent candles, signaling continued downside pressure. Each attempt to extend above $0.4166 is quickly met with selling, showing that intraday traders are not yet prepared to chase upside momentum.

The ascending channel offers a clean intraday structure, but it remains fragile. A breakdown below $0.4020 would invalidate the short term recovery and open a move back toward $0.3900, the lower boundary of the recent demand zone.

For short term bulls, a close above $0.4166 is required to build intraday strength. A breakout above VWAP would open the door for a retest of $0.4300, but the move needs to be supported by rising volume to avoid another fade.

ADA’s short term path depends on whether buyers can force a breakout from the descending channel and reclaim the 20 day EMA.