Factors that could drive XRP’s price have become a new concern in the community. While transaction volume on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is often cited as the main catalyst, several analysts argue that deeper structural factors may matter far more over the next cycle.
Factors that could drive XRP’s price have become a new concern in the community. While transaction volume on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is often cited as the main catalyst, several analysts argue that deeper structural factors may matter far more over the next cycle.
Instead of transaction metrics, attention is shifting toward XRP supply lockups. Analysis by ‘All Things XRP’ suggests that more XRP is being removed from active circulation and held for longer periods across multiple ecosystems.
Several developments support this trend:
Unlike transaction volume, these factors reduce the amount of XRP readily available for trading. This changes the supply side of the equation rather than the speed of usage.
Supporters of the supply-lockup thesis argue that when tradeable XRP decreases while demand stays steady or grows, price pressure naturally builds. This does not require explosive transaction growth, only structural tightening of available supply.
However, not everyone agrees that a true “supply shock” is forming.
On-chain data shows that exchanges still collectively hold around 15.4 billion XRP across 26 outlets. Upbit alone holds about 6.25 billion XRP, followed by Binance with 2.52 billion and Bithumb with 1.82 billion. This suggests that liquidity remains deep.
Legal analyst Bill Morgan has pushed back on supply-shock narratives, noting that exchange-held XRP represents roughly 15% of total supply and about 25% of circulating supply.
He has also downplayed the impact of spot XRP ETFs, which currently hold less than 1% of total supply. From this view, XRP scarcity is still more theory than reality.
Adding another layer to the discussion, Share Market Advisor recently listed Ripple as the ninth-largest potential IPO candidate for 2026, with an estimated valuation of $50 billion. The list placed Ripple alongside companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Stripe.
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Some community members interpreted this as a bullish signal for XRP, suggesting early positioning before broader market recognition. Others questioned the logic, arguing Ripple does not need public capital and would risk unnecessary exposure.
Meanwhile, Ripple leadership has been consistent in shutting down IPO speculation. President Monica Long has stated there is no plan or timeline for going public, emphasizing that Ripple is already well-funded.
CEO Brad Garlinghouse has echoed this view, saying IPO discussion is a distant, long-term consideration rather than a near-term event.
XRP is trading at $1.89, up 2.25% amid a broader crypto relief rally. Despite the bounce, the asset remains down 11.8% over the past month and 21% over the last eight weeks.
Supporters argue the current price does not reflect XRP’s fundamentals. Spot XRP ETFs launched in mid-November have attracted over $1.17 billion in inflows with no net outflow days.
Major asset managers now oversee more than $1.24 billion in XRP, pointing to steady institutional accumulation despite recent price weakness.
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Regulatory momentum is also feeding optimism. The CLARITY Act is expected to move to markup in January 2026, and Ripple’s compliance-first approach positions XRP as a potential beneficiary of clearer U.S. crypto rules.
At the same time, XRP treasury strategies are expanding. Companies such as Wellgistics Health, Webus International, and VivoPower are planning long-term XRP holdings. At the same time, Ripple-backed treasury initiatives via Evernoth aim to build up to $1 billion in XRP reserves.
Given these bullish developments, some commentators that even $10 is not the end game.
Notably, at $10, XRP’s market capitalization would sit around $601 billion. For many long-term holders, that valuation still looks modest relative to the scale of ETF growth, regulatory clarity, treasury adoption, and infrastructure being built around the asset.
Ultimately, whether 2026 delivers a true supply squeeze or simply steady structural tightening remains to be seen.
