Bitcoin’s short-term market outlook is facing renewed pressure as data shows a deep slide in the Coinbase Premium Index, a metric widely monitored for signals on U.S. investor behavior. The index has fallen to some of its weakest readings of the year, reflecting an extended period in which Bitcoin traded consistently below global spot prices on Coinbase.
Bitcoin’s short-term market outlook is facing renewed pressure as data shows a deep slide in the Coinbase Premium Index, a metric widely monitored for signals on U.S. investor behavior. The index has fallen to some of its weakest readings of the year, reflecting an extended period in which Bitcoin traded consistently below global spot prices on Coinbase.
According to chart data cited by Ki Young Ju, the Coinbase Premium Index has held in negative territory throughout November, coinciding with Bitcoin’s decline toward the $84,500 level. The measure recently hovered near –0.06, marking one of the discounts recorded in recent months.
Historically, negative premiums indicate that U.S. spot buyers are selling more aggressively than participants in other regions, and the current readings match four consecutive weekly red candles for Bitcoin.
The chart also shows that periods of price stability typically bring the index closer to its neutral level. However, each major pullback over the past year has produced red spikes, displaying moments when Coinbase prices fell below the global average.
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The data shows how conditions have shifted since mid-year. In June, July, and early October, the index moved above 0.25 as U.S. demand helped push Bitcoin beyond $120,000. Those positive readings have since faded, replaced by sustained discount levels that align with the current correction phase.
The premium gap also reached nearly negative $90 at one point, revealing the clear divide between U.S. traders and participants in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, where premiums remained flat or slightly positive.
The divergence between U.S. flows and overseas activity has added strain to Bitcoin’s market structure. Trading during U.S. hours remained negative for most of the month, contributing to ongoing downside pressure.
Analysts note that extended periods of negative premiums are often interpreted as signs of caution among U.S. traders. However, the latest readings correspond to the selling activity documented across major sessions.