VanEck CEO Jan van Eck Says Bitcoin Is Near Its Bottom as the Four Year Cycle Winds Down

Bitcoin is likely to have reached a structural bottom sooner than much of the investor base thinks, in the opinion of Jan van Eck, CEO of global investment firm VanEck. According to van Eck, Bitcoin's current sell-off is based primarily upon the conclusion of Bitcoin's four year halving or reward reduction cycle and is not the result of any deterioration in Bitcoin's underlying fundamentals.

Van Eck commented during an interview with CNBC that he believes 2026 is also consistent with what he sees as the “fourth year” in the history of Bitcoin’s recurring investment cycle. Previous fourth years in the history of Bitcoin have been characterized by dramatic price drop-offs, after which the market appears to regain its “momentum” and start preparing for its next expansion.

At the time of van Eck’s remarks, Bitcoin was trading around $68,000, and he believes investors might be complicating things too much by paying attention to short-term headlines rather than the fact that the market is following its intended supply chain.

The Four Year Halving Cycle Remains the Primary Driver

Van Eck’s argument revolves around the fact that Bitcoin has a predetermined monetary supply. There will be no more than 21 million total bitcoins. Each time a miner successfully solves a block, they receive a reward (a newly minted bitcoin) in exchange for their work in validating the transaction. Over time, because of a process called “halving,” the number of new bitcoins awarded per block will be cut in half approximately every four years.

One of Bitcoin's defining traits is its depreciating reward system. Van Eck illustrated the historical cycle succinctly:

• Bitcoin rises for 3 years straight;

• then it falls sharply in the 4th year;

• and resets its cycle before beginning its next growth period.

Van Eck believes the 4th year of that cycle will be in 2026.

Van Eck sees the drop in Bitcoin's price due to structural rhythms rather than fundamental weakness, institutional attrition, or regulatory uncertainty.

Historically, after every Bitcoin halving event, prices had a strong upward movement. When supply increases, the scarcity narrative increases, capital flowing into the market increases, and speculative demand accelerates; eventually the market overheats, and corrections happen. The correction years can feel severe right after they happen, but in historical terms are at the end of the cycle, not the beginning of a long-term decline.

November 2009 - 20 of 20: All $100,000 or more: 2010 - 2021; After all major corrections occurred (426), the price of Bitcoin encountered a major correction in the last few months of 2022 through March of 2023.

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Why 2026 Fits the Historical Bear Pattern

Van Eck highlighted that the year 2026 fits in with what is usually considered the down year of the market cycle.

Examples of action from previous cycles include:

In 2012 after halving, price went to all-time high in 2013 but dropped and retraced in 2014.

In 2016 after halving, price went to all-time high in 2017 then dropped and retraced dramatically in 2018.

In 2020 after halving, price reached it all time high in 2021 and then for the rest of 2022, incorrectly dropped from that price for the next 22 months.

Every cycle has a known format as outlined below:

Reduction in value or supply (e.g., Oil, Gold, Silver, etc.)

Long-term (searched for below) price increases over multiple years/logarithmic growth.

Major price downfalls (retracement) in year four.

Van Eck sees many similarities with what occurred during the 4th year of the previous cycles which may define the situation today, i.e., reframe current bear market, which can instead be thought of as an evolution of all the prior market cycles from one cycle to another.

The key thing to remember about Year Four is that it shouldn't only be seen as a period of price decreases. There may also be:

Miner Capitulation

Retail Interest Declining

Lower Trading Volume

Consolidating Ranges

Historically, all of these variables have existed before the market stabilises and begins to recover gradually.

Supply Mechanics Versus Fundamentals

Van Eck indicated that in his view, current Bitcoin prices are based much more on the mechanics behind its supply as opposed to any kind of determination through fundamentals.

This is in stark contrast to traditional markets, where an asset's price tends to reflect its expected future earnings (as based on expected growth in revenue), for instance, or balance sheet strength, or the state of the economy as a whole.

Conversely, Bitcoin has a transparent issuance schedule that is set into code and cannot change.

The halving cycle has been the primary driver behind the increase in Bitcoin prices in recent months, more so than any type of story about how institutions are increasingly adopting this cryptocurrency or how technology has improved.

However, this does not imply that Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals are irrelevant. The Bitcoin Network remains secure, levels of hash power remain healthy, there has been an expansion of institutions providing investing products to the public, and the custodial service (the facility where investors keep their digital currencies safe until they want to move them to actual currency) has improved.

Nonetheless, van Eck asserts that these events occur under the influence of the halving cycle, not in contradiction to it.

This means that Bitcoin’s scarcity model will dominate all of the long-term pricing behavior of Bitcoin.

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The Psychology of a Market Bottom

There is always debate about whether or not a bottom has been reached. It is very rare for the market to give clear signals to confirm that it is done dropping.

The majority of Bitcoin bottoming patterns in the past have shown four consistent psychological characteristics:

1) Pessimistic media headlines predominating coverage.

2) Retail participation significantly down.

3) Compressed volatility.

4) Quiet accumulation by long term holders.

Van Eck mentions "we're putting in the bottom" as he thinks we still have more decline ahead of us before we see any recovery. However, when Van Eck says "we're putting in a bottom," really it's referring to the process of establishing a foothold in the market to move on.

Bottoms will take place over an extended period of time and occur from fatigue not euphoria.

By anchoring their expectations to explosive rallies, investors who are currently in a similar market environment may perceive that the market is weak when, in fact, the market typically moves sideways due to a period of consolidation which is often when the market builds its "foundation".

Continuing with the assumption that the four-year cycle continues to remain valid, it is quite possible that the current trading environment can be perceived as late-stage corrections rather than a structurally weak environment.

Institutional Perspective on Bitcoin Cycles

The CEO of VanEck, VanEck representing a large asset management firm with digital asset and exchange traded products exposure has conducted an analysis from an institutional perspective.

Most institutions attempt to create repeatable frameworks, creating a four year cycle provides one such framework. The four year cycle will provide historical perspective based on reliable supply changes instead of speculation based on sentiment.

In van Eck's view, Bitcoin can be seen as a mature macro-asset with identifiable patterns, rather than simply a speculative anomaly, when assessed according to its issuance schedule. This frame of reference implies that the volatility of Bitcoin is not simply the result of random occurrence but is cyclical, characterized by expansion and contraction periods.

Seeing Bitcoin this way might change how institutional investors make allocation decisions during a downturn.

Risks to the Cycle Thesis

Van Eck has evidence of historical behaviour patterns to substantiate his argument; nevertheless, cycles, themselves, are inconsistent with the laws of physics. Major regulatory crackdown events, structural mining disruptions, global liquidity events, technological vulnerabilities, and unique macroeconomic events may all contribute to disruption.

There is the potential for stronger correlations between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets through greater integration of Bitcoin into the traditional financial market.

However, to this point, van Eck maintains the most significant influence on the price cycle of Bitcoin has consistently been driven by the BTC halving cycle. Until evidence shows this to be false, he sees no good reason not to paint BTC halving cycle as the most dominant factor driving BTC prices.

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Gradual Recovery Rather Than Immediate Surge

Van Eck said he doesn't think there will be a sharp price rise. He believes that the price of Bitcoin should gradually go up over the course of 2022. This is an important difference. When you look at historical cycles, typically, prices start to recover from a cycle by showing:

* A stabilization of prices

* A reduction in volatility to the downside

* A renewed accumulation by institutions

* An improvement in liquidity.

It takes time to develop momentum before it can begin accelerating. Some investors that are anticipating a 'V' type recovery will likely miss earlier signs of stabilization. If the thesis proves out that the bottom has been established; this next phase may entail a slow period of putting things back together vs. a strong upward move.

A Reminder of Bitcoin’s Core Design

Essentially, van Eck's commentary brings the focus back to the fundamental design principles of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was designed with:

• A finite maximum supply

• An open and transparent issuance

• A predictable and planned halving event

In contrast to fiat currencies, which are subject to the whims of monetary policy, bitcoin's monetary system is hard-coded.

The primary takeaway from Van Eck's view is that price behavior has consistently been affected by this structure.

Van Eck believes that the bear market of 2026 is the fourth chapter in the ongoing narrative of scarcity and time rather than an indication that this structure has failed.

Conclusion

The explanation for Bitcoin's volatility can be complicated, but Jan van Eck thinks it can be simplified.

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck believes the current cryptocurrency weakness is simply a function of the four-year halving cycle coming to its natural conclusion — rather than an indication of any fundamental collapse. Further showing that 2026 is typically a correction year, the market appears to be in the process of forming a bottom for this cycle.

If we look back to prior history, stabilization will happen and then a long slow recovery will take place as the next expansion phase starts.

The key components of the framework are still valid.

Limited supply. Periodic halving. Cycles of reoccurrence.

For the long term, being aware of that framework may be more useful than being reactive to short term fluctuations.