Bitcoin Slides Below $65K—What the Data Says About What Comes Next
sa****@yahoo.com2026-02-28
Bitcoin has had a brutal few weeks. After hitting an all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025, it has shed roughly half its value and is now trading below $65,000.
Bitcoin has had a brutal few weeks. After hitting an all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025, it has shed roughly half its value and is now trading below $65,000.
BTC/USDT Daily Chart
On Tuesday, it briefly dipped below $63,000 before recovering slightly. This is the latest move in what is shaping up to be six consecutive weeks of red weekly candles, an event that hasn't taken place since May 2022.
The sell-off has been driven largely by events outside the crypto market. The White House raised global tariff rates to 15% over the weekend, rattling financial markets broadly.
Bitcoin, which has been trading in close lockstep with the Nasdaq in recent months, followed equities lower. Geopolitical concerns around Iran added to the pressure.
As Christopher Hamilton of Invesco put it, the move looks less like a crypto-specific shock and more like a classic risk-sentiment reset.
Spot Market: Selling Is Easing, but Buyers Are Absent
According to Glassnode's latest weekly data, Bitcoin's spot trading volume dropped 21% week-over-week to around $6 billion, falling below its normal activity range. Thin volume means price moves don't have much behind them, which explains the choppy, reactive price action we've seen.
That said, the Spot CVD—a measure of whether buyers or sellers are being more aggressive—improved from -$177 million to -$161.5 million, suggesting aggressive selling is starting to lose steam.
Derivatives: Cautious but Not Collapsing
Futures open interest dipped slightly to $23.2 billion, pointing to mild deleveraging. At the same time, the funding rate jumped 68% in a week to nearly $882,000, meaning traders are still paying a premium to hold long positions.
There's lingering bullish conviction, just not backed by fresh leverage. According to Matt Howells-Barby, VP at Kraken, Bitcoin is on track to close six consecutive weekly red candles for the first time since May 2022, with $60,000 flagged as the key support level bulls are watching.
ETF Flows: Institutions Are Still Waiting
Investors have sold over $1 billion in Bitcoin ETFs in February alone, adding to a $7 billion ETF outflow streak that started back in November.
Image via Farside Investors
Weekly ETF trading volume fell 17% to $11.9 billion, and the ETF MVRV ratio slipped from 1.15 to 1.11.
Holders are still in profit on average, but that cushion is thinning. When institutional money starts returning to these products, it will likely be one of the first signs that sentiment is genuinely shifting.
On-Chain Data: The Network Has Gone Quiet
Glassnode's on-chain data shows active Bitcoin addresses fell to around 598,000, below their normal range, while fee volume dropped nearly 10%.
Image via Glassnode
Hot Capital Share—which tracks how much market activity is driven by newer, price-sensitive investors—fell from 32.6% to 28.6%. When these participants leave, the market gets quieter and thinner.
The realized cap is still contracting, and unrealized losses continue to outweigh gains across the network.
Where Does Bitcoin Go From Here
Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com, sees $53,000 to $55,000 as a likely downside target if selling pressure persists, while $60,000 remains the widely cited floor.
Glassnode data does show over 400,000 BTC was accumulated in the $60,000 to $70,000 range during this downturn, pointing to real buying interest there.
On-chain analyst James Check noted that every mean reversion model is trading within bottom formation levels typically seen after a major capitulation event, drawing parallels to 2018 and mid-2022.
The RSI has recovered from 37.3 to 42.5 but hasn't crossed 50 yet, which is where momentum typically flips from bearish to neutral.
Until it does—and until ETF inflows return and on-chain activity picks back up—the honest read here is stabilization, not reversal. Patience and careful position sizing matter more right now than trying to call an exact bottom.
BTC Statistics Data
BTC Market Cap: $1.28T
BTC Circulating Supply: 19.99M
BTC Total Supply: 21M
BTC Market Ranking: #1
