Ethereum Price Outlook: Struggling to Reclaim Broken Trendline as Long Positions Build

At the time of writing, trades at $3,446, struggling to reclaim the rising trendline that has defined higher lows since April. The recent breakdown below this structure invalidates the previous trendline support, suggesting a potential shift in market momentum.

While derivatives data shows renewed long positioning, the move now reflects attempts to defend post-breakdown levels rather than a clean bounce from trendline support. The market will need to reclaim the trendline to confirm a short-term recovery and negate further downside pressure.

Ethereum trades below all major EMAs on the daily chart:

The immediate resistance is at the 200 EMA. The price needs to hold above this level to confirm a more bullish move. The Supertrend remains red, indicating that the trend bias has not yet turned positive.

A daily close above $3,935 would flip the Supertrend and reclaim the 50-day EMA, signaling the first clean trend reversal since October.

Derivatives flows confirm aggressive positioning toward longs:

The increase across all metrics reflects growing speculative activity and confidence in a potential upside move. Notably, a high-profile whale who correctly shorted ahead of tariff volatility has now flipped direction and opened a $138 million long on ETH, with an entry near $3,445. The size of that magnitude is rarely taken at random; large participants typically position near inflection points, not after confirmation.

On the 30-minute chart, ETH holds above VWAP.

A move above $3,500 unlocks a retest of the 200-day EMA at $3,597. A breakout above the 200-day EMA would show buyers regaining trend control.

ETH failed to defend the rising trendline that has guided its uptrend since April. The focus now shifts to whether the price can reclaim this level and establish a base for recovery.