SUI and SOL Token Unlocks Incoming — Price Drop Ahead?

The crypto market is focused on two major token unlock events in the coming days that could trigger significant price volatility for Sui (SUI) and Solana (SOL). A combined total of over $250 million worth of the two Layer-1 tokens is scheduled to be released, putting both assets into substantial price volatility.

On July 1, Sui Network is scheduled to unlock 58.35 million SUI tokens, representing 0.58% of the total supply and worth around $178.53 million — 1.71% of its market cap, according to data from .

Meanwhile, FTX Estate will 12.7K SOL, valued at $1.99 million, into the market on the same day. Just a , on July 7, an additional 472.99K SOL (about $74.06 million) will be unlocked.

These unlocks could significantly affect market sentiment, liquidity, and price trajectories in the short term.

A closer look at the daily chart of SUI reveals that the asset is currently trading around $3.06, testing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $3.0224. This level represents a potential support zone; however, if this area fails to hold, downside momentum could increase toward the 0.5 level at $2.8556, followed by the golden ratio (0.618) at $2.6887.

Additionally, the Balance of Power (BoP) indicator has recently spiked to 0.30, suggesting a short-term dominance of buyers — but this reading remains volatile and can quickly reverse as unlock-driven selling pressure hits the market.

The SUI chart also shows a weakening structure after failing to break above $3.22 (Fib 0.236), hinting that bulls are struggling to maintain momentum. If the price dips below $3 and fails to reclaim it quickly, expect a drop toward the lower Fib levels.

Despite the upcoming unlock of over $76 million in SOL across two tranches, some analysts remain optimistic. World of Charts, a popular technical analyst, points out that SOL is consolidating within a tight bullish pennant, and a breakout could push the price toward $185, a key horizontal resistance.

A decisive daily close above that level may open the gates to $250, a significant psychological and technical barrier.