Correlation Between Cryptocurrency and Traditional Markets: Stock, Gold, and Bond
The emergence of cryptocurrencies has changed the global financial environment and the approach towards investment and risk. With digital assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum and others attracting mainstream attention, investors are seeking the answer to: just how correlated are cryptocurrencies to traditional markets like equities, gold and bonds? These correlations are important for diversified portfolio construction, risk management and tactical investment decisions.
What is Market Correlation?
Market correlation shows the extent to which two or more assets move together. If that number tends to be positive, assets move in the same direction; if it tends to be negative, they move in opposite directions. They dictate whether Bitcoin will sync with the markets. For instance, if Bitcoin is consistently moving in the same direction as the S&P 500, it means they are positively correlated. Those that are uncorrelated or close to zero are independent from one another and can be used to lower portfolio risk.
Cryptocurrency and Stock Market Correlation
In the past, cryptocurrencies were believed to be uncorrelated with traditional markets, serving as a portfolio diversification tool. But a more complicated picture emerges from studies and recent market dynamics:
- Short-Term Correlations: In severe market stress conditions, including recession or geopolitical crisis, Bitcoin, just like other large-cap cryptocurrencies, may exhibit a higher level of correlation with equities. For instance, in March 2020 during the COVID-19 market crash, Bitcoin plummeted along with global stock indices.
- Long-Term Trends: Over long stretches of time, correlations between crypto and stocks are moderate, meaning that while crypto isn’t fully decoupled, it could act as a diversifier in typical stock-heavy portfolios.
- Tech Appeal: Cryptocurrencies tend to track tech-heavy indices like the NASDAQ, because they share similar kinds of investors, such as institutional investors and technology-friendly retail traders.
Cryptocurrency and Gold Correlation
Gold is generally regarded as a “safe-haven” asset, valued for its stability during economic turmoil.
Crypto vs. gold – Centrality of Trust of Money Supply:
Crypto: the trust is intrinsic in the consensus mechanism, Bitcoin as ultimate proof of work (gold equivalent), global consensus.
- Digital Gold Thesis: Bitcoin is often described as digital gold as a result of its scarcity and decentralized nature. Yet, real-world observations show low to moderate correlation between Bitcoin and gold prices.
- Hedge Potential: Cryptos often (but not always) trade inversely to gold, making a good hedge in the right economic environment. Yet, very high market volatility on occasion can cause crypto and gold to move somewhat in sync, especially in times of global economic duress.
Cryptocurrency and Bond Market Correlation
Bonds are the quintessential low-risk income-earning investment. Here’s what investors need to know about how that relationship to cryptocurrencies can help them manage risk:
- Negative or Low Correlation: Cryptocurrencies have on average a low or negative correlation to government bonds. As bond yields climb, investors could also take money out of high-risk assets, including crypto, and move it into safe-haven fixed-income assets.
- Interest Rate Exposure: Bull and bear markets in the bond market can have an indirect impact on crypto markets. When interest rates start to increase and liquidity gets squeezed, demand for high-risk digital assets is reduced.
Factors Influencing Crypto-Traditional Market Correlation
The relationship between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets is modified by different factors:
- Market Sentiment: Risk-on sentiment might tend to bring higher positively correlated assets, while risk-off sentiment can result in negative or even non-correlations.
- Runs on Liquidity: High-roller trading and institutional validation may keep crypto in lockstep with the broader market in the short term.
- Macroeconomic Events: Crises, inflation, and monetary policy tend to affect all asset classes together, which impacts their relationships.
- Technology: As crypto adoption increases in payment systems, ETFs, and institutional portfolios, correlations with other assets may shift.
Practical Implications for Investors
Knowing these correlations is imperative to making informed investment decisions:
- Diversification: The independent movements between crypto and gold and bonds can be used to diversify a portfolio, reducing risk in stormy markets.
- Hedging Strategies: Investors can place bets on crypto as a hedge against inflation or stock market volatility, but should do so with caution in times of extreme stress in the markets.
- Risk Management: Historical correlations are an early warning indicator of how portfolio risk is changing and how asset allocation may be slipping.
Conclusion
Relationships between cryptocurrency and traditional markets are complicated and constantly changing. Crypto is somewhere in between the stock/bond and gold relationship, tending to be moderately correlated with stocks during market gyrations while being more broadly decoupled from gold and bonds, providing a hedge that extends beyond what traditional assets can provide. For investors who stay savvy about such relationships, this can be a way to gain a strategic increase in portfolio resilience and the chance to benefit from both digital growth and physical-world growth (rather than risk exposure to just one).
This article is contributed by an external writer: Linda Titianitus.
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