LBank Prediction Futures is a futures product centered around event outcomes. Users can choose a trading direction based on their judgment of an event outcome and manually close positions during the holding period. Upon futures expiry, the system will settle positions according to the final result. Under higher leverage modes, positions may be forcibly liquidated if the price reaches the liquidation threshold.

This guide introduces the basic concepts, usage, and frequently asked questions related to LBank Prediction Futures, helping users better understand the product interface and trading flow. If users are preparing to start trading, it is recommended to read this guide first so they can browse events, place orders, and review results more efficiently.

About LBank Prediction Futures

LBank Prediction Futures is a product that uses event outcomes as the trading target. Prices generally reflect the market's expectation of the probability of a specific outcome. Users can trade around trending events, sports matches, or price-related topics and choose their preferred trading direction through the futures options displayed on the page.

Compared with regular perpetual futures, Prediction Futures focuses on event outcomes and probability changes rather than continuous token price fluctuations alone. Prediction Futures prices generally fluctuate between 0 USDT and 1 USDT and usually have a clear expiry and settlement mechanism. Although a small number of events may not have a clearly available expiry date in advance, all events will eventually end and enter the result confirmation or settlement process.

Trading Rules

Product Mechanism	Prices on the platform primarily reflect users' expectations of event outcomes.
Event Source	Events and event results are sourced from Polymarket.
Leverage Mode	Supports up to 5x leverage. In 1x leverage mode, the funding rate is 0, and positions are generally not subject to forced liquidation. Under higher leverage, positions may be forcibly liquidated if market volatility is high or the holding period is extended.
Trading Risk	Even if the final event result matches your judgment, you may still lose all of your principal if the price reaches the liquidation threshold before settlement.
Results & Settlement	The platform does not guarantee event outcomes, trading profits, price movements, or final settlement results. Under extreme market conditions, profitable positions may be subject to Auto-Deleveraging (ADL).

Product & Account Mechanism

Prediction Futures and Perpetual Futures share the same futures account.
Prediction Futures currently supports isolated margin mode only and allows margin adjustment.
Unrealized PnL from cross margin perpetual futures will affect the available balance in the Prediction Market. In particular, floating losses in cross margin perpetual futures will directly reduce available funds.
The leverage multiple for each event is configured by the platform, and user-defined leverage is currently not supported.

Fees & Matching

When users open or close positions manually, trading fees will be charged according to the configured fee rate.
No fee is charged for normal automatic settlement upon expiry.
The order book displays notional value, while actual matching is still carried out based on quantity.
Under higher leverage modes, funding fees may apply. Please refer to the page rules and actual product configuration.

Market Order Execution & Slippage

When a user places a market order, the system will match the order sequentially based on the currently available prices in the order book.
A market order may be matched through up to the top 10 price levels in the order book. Any portion exceeding that range will be automatically canceled and will not continue to execute.
Under conditions such as insufficient market liquidity, relatively large order size, or rapid market fluctuations, a market order may not be fully executed, and the average execution price may deviate from the latest price, resulting in slippage.
Users are advised to reasonably manage the size of each order based on market liquidity. If necessary, users may consider using limit orders or placing orders in batches to reduce execution impact and slippage risk.

How to Access Prediction Futures

After entering LBank Prediction Market, users can directly enter the Prediction Futures trading page to view the available futures. If an event includes multiple outcome options, each outcome option corresponds to a separate futures, and users can choose a trading direction based on their own judgment of the result.

How-to Steps

Log in and navigate to「Futures > Prediction Market」, then select Prediction Futures.
Select the target event futures to trade.
Choose an order type, such as a limit order or market order.
Enter the price and amount, then choose「Open Long」or「Open Short」.
Confirm the order details and submit the order.
After placing an order, users can view current orders, current positions, order history, and trade history in the relevant sections.

Understanding Long, Short, & Price

In LBank Prediction Futures, opening a Long position generally means you believe the outcome will happen, while opening a Short position generally means you believe the outcome will not happen. Prediction Futures supports two-way trading, and users can choose their trading direction based on their own judgment.
Prediction Futures prices can generally be understood as a real-time reflection of the market's expectation of a specific outcome. In general, a higher price indicates a higher market expectation that the outcome will occur.
PnL is calculated based on the entry price and the closing price or final settlement price. Relevant price display, execution, settlement results, and actual PnL are subject to the platform page and applicable trading rules.

How Is PnL Calculated?

The following examples are calculated based on 1x leverage, and the results shown are estimated values. Actual PnL is subject to opening fees, closing fees for manual position closure, and funding fees incurred during the holding period, where applicable under higher leverage modes.

Prediction Futures

Formula

Long (Yes): PnL = (Closing Price - Entry Price) × Quantity
Short (No): PnL = (Entry Price - Closing Price) × Quantity

Example

Direction	Example	Event Result	PnL	Estimated Result
Long	Entry price 0.40, Long 100 contracts	Event result is “Yes,” settlement price = 1 (Long profit)	(1.00 - 0.40) × 100	Estimated profit of 60 USDT
Long	Entry price 0.40, Long 100 contracts	Event result is “No,” settlement price = 0 (Long loss)	(0.00 - 0.40) × 100	Estimated loss of 40 USDT
Short	Entry price 0.75, Short 100 contracts	Event result is “No,” settlement price = 0 (Short profit)	(0.75 - 0.00) × 100	Estimated profit of 75 USD
Short	Entry price 0.75, Short 100 contracts	Event result is “Yes,” settlement price = 1 (Short loss)	(0.75 - 1.00) × 100	Estimated loss of 25 USDT

📌The examples above are provided for reference only to illustrate the PnL calculation logic. The results shown are estimated values and do not include applicable fees. Actual PnL is subject to the platform page display and final system execution results.

How to View Trading Information & Settlement Results

After an event ends, the system will settle positions according to the final result. In most cases, the settlement result may be 1 or 0. In certain special cases, if the event result is disputed, ambiguous, or cannot be clearly determined, the settlement result may also be 0.5.
For Prediction Futures, once the futures expires or the result is confirmed, the system will settle based on the fair event result sourced from Polymarket. If the Long direction is correct, the settlement price will be 1; if the Short direction is correct, the settlement price will be 0; if the event result is ambiguous, the settlement price may be 0.5.
If an event has ended but the final result is still pending confirmation, the page may display Pending Confirmation. If the system has already obtained the final result but settlement has not yet started or is still in progress, the page may display Pending Settlement.
Under Pending Settlement, the Adjust Margin and Close Position functions in the current positions list are temporarily unavailable, and Close Position will display Pending Settlement. If a Prediction Futures contract has already entered the settlement period, the frontend may also show a message such as "The position is being settled and cannot be manually closed." The relevant funds will be automatically credited to the account after settlement is completed.
Event information, status, and final results are subject to the actual display on the LBank page. If the event result is still under confirmation, related page status updates may be temporarily delayed. In extreme cases where third-party data is abnormal, the platform may also perform manual intervention.

Margin, Liquidation, & Risk Control

Prediction Futures currently supports isolated margin mode only and allows margin adjustment. The maximum additional margin depends on the net available balance of the entire account after deducting floating losses from cross margin perpetual futures. The maximum removable margin depends on the maximum amount that can be withdrawn from the position while maintaining the Maintenance Margin Ratio (MMR) safety threshold.
When position equity falls below the Maintenance Margin Ratio (MMR), forced liquidation may be triggered. The related calculations may affect fields such as initial margin, opening fee, frozen order margin, notional value, maintenance margin, maximum openable size, bonus availability, liquidation price, and bankruptcy price.
The system supports an ADL mechanism. Under extreme market conditions, profitable positions may be subject to auto-deleveraging. In addition, liquidated positions are taken over by the system at the bankruptcy price and cleared through order book matching. Therefore, when the market moves rapidly, differences may occur between order quantity, executed quantity, and average execution price in billing records. Final execution details are subject to the bankruptcy price logic.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Prediction Market price represent?

Prediction Market prices generally reflect the market's expectation of the probability of a specific outcome. Prices change according to market trading activity.

Can I go Long or Short?

LBank Prediction Futures supports two-way trading, and users can choose to Open Long or Open Short based on their own judgment.

Why do some events show「Pending Confirmation」or「Pending Settlement」?

「Pending Confirmation」usually means that the event or contract has ended, but the system has not yet obtained the final result.「Pending Settlement」usually means that the system has already obtained the final result, but settlement has not yet started or has not yet been completed. Under these statuses, the「Adjust Margin」and「Close Position」functions are temporarily unavailable. Please refer to the actual page display.

What is the difference between Prediction Futures and regular perpetual futures?

Regular perpetual futures mainly trade around token price fluctuations and usually do not have an expiry date. Prediction Futures mainly trades around event outcomes and probability changes, with futures prices generally fluctuating between 0 USDT and 1 USDT and featuring result confirmation and settlement mechanisms.

What order types are supported in Prediction Futures?

Prediction Futures currently supports both market orders and limit orders.

How are trading fees charged in Prediction Futures?

When users open or close positions manually, fees are charged according to the configured fee rate. No fee is charged for normal automatic settlement upon expiry.

Why can't futures in settlement be manually closed?

When an event result has been determined or a futures contract has expired and entered the settlement period, the manual close function may be temporarily unavailable. After settlement is completed, the relevant funds will be automatically credited to the account.

How do Prediction Futures and perpetual futures share funds?

Prediction Futures and perpetual futures share the same futures account. Unrealized PnL from cross margin perpetual futures will affect the available balance in Prediction Market, especially floating losses under cross margin, which directly reduce available funds.

Can futures bonuses or position vouchers be used?

Prediction Market supports Ultra Bonuses and other eligible futures bonuses, subject to the applicable bonus usage rules. Position vouchers are currently not supported.

Reminder

LBank Prediction Market provides users with a way to trade around event outcomes. Before participating in trading, users should fully understand the product rules, trading mechanism, settlement method, and related risks, and trade prudently according to their own risk tolerance. Actual trading rules, page status, and final results are subject to the LBank platform page display and actual system execution results.

Digital asset trading involves high risk, and price volatility may result in the partial or total loss of principal. This content is provided for reference only and does not constitute any investment, financial, or trading advice; any third-party views or information referenced herein are for market information purposes only and do not represent the position of LBank. Before participating, please make sure you fully understand the relevant product risks, conduct your own research, and make prudent decisions based on your own risk tolerance.

LBank Prediction Market User Guide & FAQs